Ouch. From one perspective, the nation's long-running bid to host the Cop31 next year has concluded unsuccessfully.
The effort ran for over 36 months for the rights to host the world's biggest environmental conference and green trade fair, which would have brought many thousands of delegates to the city of Adelaide next fall.
That's not happening. Rather, the conference known as the UN climate meeting is headed to the tourist destination of Antalya, on the Turkish Mediterranean.
The result will be a significant disappointment to numerous individuals who had believed hosting the climate carnival could help speed up the country's shift from being a carbon-based economy to a renewable energy superpower, and bring international focus to the existential plight facing Pacific island nations, who would have been joint hosts.
The procedure that resulted in defeat has been an opaque mess. In recent days, there have been questions that Anthony Albanese and other high-ranking officials really wanted the bid to succeed. The prime minister's language sent mixed messages at best. This led to stories in the Australian and international media saying the government was walking away.
This contrasted with the message being conveyed at the Cop30 talks in the Brazilian city, where the environment minister, the climate minister, had just declared the country was "in it to win it".
Ambiguous backing is not a new issue for Australia's Cop31 bid. While the minister supported it, other senior members of the administration have only occasionally appeared to be interested.
The Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade, usually in charge for global environmental talks, has been uninvolved and sometimes outright opposed.
Evidence suggests Albanese has viewed UN climate conferences a important focus. He hasn't attended one since taking office in 2022. We'll never know, but many may question if more could have been done to get the bid over the line.
That's one interpretation. However, another perspective to consider it.
Considering the climate discussions this week in Brazil – and from an global viewpoint – the announcement on this week may, ironically, have been the best result available.
The minister outlined on that day an unprecedented deal that he was working on with his Turkish counterpart, the Turkish minister. Turkey would be the conference leader, organizer and effective event manager, and Australia – the climate minister – would assume a role as "chief negotiator", wrangling nearly 200 countries on the matters that the nations actually turn up for – the discussions on how to together address the environmental emergency.
Additionally, there would be a greater focus on the Pacific region, including a lead-up event on an island nation.
There are plenty of grounds for scepticism. Turkey and Australia do not have a strong partnership. Specific aspects of the agreement had not been finalized at the time of writing. The whole thing could fall over before it gets started.
However, it might represent a way to recover value from what appeared to be an approaching car crash for the international cooperation on global warming.
The Turkish government is generally viewed in the international community as having been hellbent on causing havoc in the international climate negotiations. The system is designed to operate by unanimous agreement. Usually, that means if there are several nations in the race those with weaker backing either bow out voluntarily, or a deal is quietly done to encourage them to exit the race.
Turkey plainly had weaker endorsement than Australia and Pacific islands to organize the summit. At least 24 of the 28 countries responsible for nominating next year's venue had supported the southern pitch.
However, uniquely, Ankara refused to yield. The term "bastardry" has been thrown around in the past week, and not just by Australians.
Ankara's stubbornness can be interpreted as a reflection of the fracturing geopolitical climate. Without US participation under Donald Trump, there has been no dominant nation with the influence to confront the petroleum exporters that offered the Turkish government with certain protection.
President Erdoğan is considered aligned with Vladimir Putin. Several nations feared a conference hindered from the leadership if his administration managed the discussions. Germany did not want to have to host an unprepared Cop31 at the UN climate headquarters in Bonn, which is what would have happened under UN rules if the deadlock wasn't resolved.
A path through was necessary. The UN system is imperfect and often unsettling to watch, but multilateral action has demonstrably had an impact in the fight against climate change. The Turkey-Australia arrangement is a innovative solution that maintains progress when it is needed more than ever.
Despite reasonable concerns of the Australian government over its contradictory stance for expanding carbon-based exports, climate activists who participate in UN conferences see the minister as a positive influence in the negotiations. He has been asked to co-chair discussion groups at each of the four conferences he has attended.
This is significant. While some have dismissed the importance of a "president of negotiations", specialists from academic institutions and experienced analysts at climate talks say it is pivotal to their success.
"Each effective summit has been shaped by a leader holding the pen who can understand, forge agreement and deliver an ambitious outcome. We saw that in the German capital in 1995, in Cancún in 2010 and Paris in 2015. The reverse happened in Copenhagen in 2009," he says. "This position is critical at the conference except for making sure that people have food."
There are plenty of unresolved issues. As an illustration, civil society plays a vital role at climate conferences. What, if anything, can the Australian government do to prevent a restriction on NGO participation by the host government?
Possibly little. But that doesn't stop this arrangement looking like the most promising opportunity possible to have a summit that may offer something for the Pacific, the nation and the world. This attempt is justified.
